Guadalajara Reporter
Friday, February 04 2011
A stronger dollar in the second half of the year and growth in Mexico of around 4.5 percent were among the predictions made by Ernesto O’Farrill Santoscoy, Actinver’s director of strategy, during a January 19 presentation in Ajijic for some 50 expatriates and Mexican attendees. Commodities, stock, bond and money market directions, world fiscal and monetary authorities responses to the crisis and how their decisions have played out were the main focus of O’Farrill’s presentation, which was organized by the Actinver Brokerage House in Ajijic.
O’Farrill made 10 predictions for 2011.
- Economic growth could be better than expected in several areas of the world: In the Far East growth will slow slightly from the 7-10 percent rates seen through 2010 due to central banks increasing interest rates and restrictive monetary policies aimed at stalling an increasing inflation rate. Europe may increase its growth rate, but fiscal austerity will blunt much of private sector growth’s impact. In the U.S., high unemployment will keep growth to 3 percent.
- Interest rates will stress their upward trend. Ten-year T-Bonds will reach 4.5 percent by the end of 2011 and if the perception of credit risk increases it could raise them to 5 percent.
- The dollar will strengthen against most currencies in the second half of the year once the Federal Reserve stops pumping extra liquidity into the system (QEII). The dollar will end the year at between 1.28 and 1.30 to the euro.
- Sovereign debt problems in Europe will continue to weaken the euro.
- Prices of raw materials and shares will continue an upward trend. Oil will return to 100 dollars per barrel. Grain and industrial metals could see rises of more than 10 percent. Precious metals will continue to rise until long-term dollar interest rates exceed 4 percent. The S&P will increase to 2,450. The Mexican stock exchange could reach 44,000. Optimism in both the U.S. and Mexico will rise at the end of 2011 as the 2012 election processes gain momentum.
- The renewable energy sector will be more dynamic with higher investment and a longer market.
- Unemployment will decrease marginally in the developed world in 2011 as only part of the jobs lost during the crisis are recovered.
- Mexico could see 4.5 percent growth in 2011 after a 5.5 percent GDP increase in 2010 and a 6.1 percent GDP loss in 2009. The main factors influencing this are a greater energy demand in the U.S., manufacturing increases, higher investment and a slight increase in internal consumption.
- A tax reform in Mexico will merge the IETU (flat rate business tax) with the ISR (income tax) for not being recognized as a tax on income by U.S. tax authorities.
- Extortion will be the main point of discussion on Mexico’s security agenda. It will be a priority on the legislative agenda and figure high in the year run-up to the 2012 elections.